A slumping star player is the last thing a team wants with the MLB postseason just around the corner. And yet, everyone from the World Series favorites to the Wild Card hopefuls is dealing with it in some capacity.
The question now is whether it’s too late for those players to turn things around or if there’s still time for them to build enough momentum for a postseason peak. FOX Sports MLB writers Rowan Kanver and Deesha Thosar dive into that and more in this week’s MLB Roundtable:
What is the most important thing or player for L.A. to fix over the next few weeks, as rosters expand and the postseason looms?
Kavner: Kyle Tucker. Edwin Díaz is a close second, but even if Díaz never threw another pitch this year, the Dodgers demonstrated last season when Tanner Scott struggled in the first year of his four-year, $72 million deal (and then didn’t appear in the postseason) that they can withstand the loss of a high-leverage reliever and make up for it in other ways. Some of their starting pitchers will likely again find their way in the bullpen once October arrives.
There aren’t as many ways to mask Tucker’s struggles, which show up on both offense and defense. He has the lowest OPS at home of any qualified MLB player, and he has dropped catchable fly balls in each of the Dodgers’ last two series. His frustrations at home got to the point last Saturday that Dave Roberts gave him a mental day off. Last year, when Michael Conforto struggled in L.A. on his one-year, $17 million deal, the Dodgers gave Conforto all year to try to get right before ultimately holding him off the postseason roster. That’s a lot harder to do with a player making $60 million a year, so they need to try to find a way to get Tucker’s confidence back to a place where he can at least be an additive supporting piece. He doesn’t have to be an All-Star caliber player, like he was the last four years. He just can’t be this.
(Photo by Ross Turteltaub/Getty Images)
Thosar: As much as I want to say fixing Kyle Tucker’s season-long slump is the biggest priority, I actually think Mookie Betts getting hot at the plate is exactly what the Dodgers need down the stretch run. He’s the stabilizing force in the lineup, and we’ve seen Betts carry the offense when he’s hitting well. Plus, the Dodgers seem to go as Betts goes. He’s batting .315 with an .888 OPS, three home runs and eight RBI over the past two weeks, and Los Angeles went 8-6 over that span. The Dodgers seem to find their footing and reclaim their momentum when Betts is right in the middle of their production.
Is Pete Crow-Armstrong just this good of a player, where he’s a genuine MVP candidate who could lead a team to a World Series, or is there concern that another shoe will eventually fall?
Kavner: Can I say both? Right now, this version of PCA looks like a player capable of carrying a team to a championship. He is providing value in every way imaginable, and this is no longer a small sample of elite production. At the same time, with any player who has a history of chasing and is prone to swing and miss, there’s always concern about a slump at some point. (It’s easy to forget now, considering how he has played since, that Crow-Armstrong had a .669 OPS at the end of April and a .713 mark at the end of May.)
To his credit, PCA has followed his slow start to the year with three extraordinary months, during which he has registered an OPS over 1.000 in each of June (1.249), July (1.011) and August (1.002 entering Thursday). That’s a long stretch without any dramatic dips, and it’s not a coincidence that both his whiff and chase rates have been down considerably over that time. If he can keep those close to league average, he should remain a superstar and could be headed toward a 40-40 season. This looks like an MVP player right now.
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Thosar: The evidence from this season, in particular, points to he’s really just this good. Even if this exact level of production comes down a little, the underlying metrics and the player he is suggest this is all real. He’s only 24, and he’s already reached his second consecutive 30-30 season, doing it all while playing an elite center field. Beyond the stats on the back of his baseball card, the biggest reason to believe PCA is maturing as a hitter is the incredible jump in his walk rate. He went from a 4.5% walk rate last season to a 11.9% rate this season, which coincides with the huge uptick in his on-base percentage. Plate discipline paired with his ability to adapt to pitchers figuring him out has really increased his ceiling in ways that suggest he’ll be a star in the league throughout his prime.
With Adley Rustchman now behind the plate and Roman Anthony due back relatively soon, does Boston have enough for a deep postseason run?
Kavner: This is definitely a team capable of making a deep October run, but it will all come down to how their bats perform. Their pitching is without question good enough to make a deep October run, especially if Garrett Crochet and Garrett Whitlock are back contributing by then. The offense has come and gone, though, and even after their spectacular month of July and terrific start to the second half, the lineup has been exactly league-average overall this season. I trust the bats of Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu in the postseason, and with Caleb Durbin heating up, it’s worth pointing out he was the Brewers’ best hitter in the NLCS against the Dodgers last year. But getting Rutschman and Roman Anthony going could be the difference between a nice season and a championship one.
(Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Thosar: If Anthony returns looking remotely like the player he was last season, the lineup gets substantially deeper. Especially with Rutschman behind the plate, suddenly the Red Sox look like they can run out a playoff lineup with multiple high-end offensive threats rather than asking one or two guys to carry the entire offense. So, yes, the combination of those two bats makes them a legitimate October threat. But I’m not convinced that, even with Rutschman and Anthony slugging, the Sox are a World Series contender. They would have to be overwhelmingly dominant to get there. Thanks to their quality pitching, they can make opponents uncomfortable in a short series. It all goes back to how effective Anthony will be, and how soon he will get there. Expecting him to instantly become an MVP-caliber hitter after being out since May is a touch unrealistic.
Paul Skenes has seen his ERA jump nearly two full runs, and Pittsburgh trails four teams for the last NL wild-card. Can the Pirates realistically make a run at the postseason with Skenes unable to get further than the fifth inning?
Kavner: Maybe if they found a way to switch to the American League? No, realistically, I can’t see a world in which the Pirates reach the postseason if this is the version of Skenes they have for the rest of the year. The signs lately have not been promising. He hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his last four starts, his fastball velocity is down and fluctuating, he has a 5.67 ERA since the start of July, and he still labored through 4.1 innings his last time out even after extra rest. The Pirates have to win the games he starts, and they have done that just once in his last five outings.
Given the hole they’ve dug themselves to start the second half, it would be difficult at this point for the Pirates to reach the playoffs even if Skenes suddenly found a way to tap back into his Cy Young form. As of Thursday night, FanGraphs gives the Pirates a 4.9% chance to make the playoffs. Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler are doing everything they can to try to lift the rotation, and the return of Oneil Cruz provides some needed upside for an offense that has struggled to produce since the break. But they need their ace to get on track if they want any shot at ending their 10-year playoff drought.
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Thosar: Absolutely not. Skenes’ performance this season is the biggest reason Pittsburgh’s margin for error has completely disappeared. It would be one thing if he was showing signs of getting back on track around now, but things are still going downhill. He’s allowed 17 earned runs in his last 23 ⅔ innings pitched, good for a 6.46 ERA over five starts. The Bucs went 1-4 in those outings. Things have been so bad for so long that it’s fair to wonder whether he’s dealing with an underlying injury. And then there’s the issue with Pittsburgh’s offense, which is fifth-worst in the league since the All-Star break. When the lineup isn’t carrying the team, as it did in the first half of the season, and the pitching staff overall has taken a turn for the worse, it would be a mistake to think the Pirates could realistically make a run for the postseason.