With the playoffs just six weeks away, both MLB MVP races are beginning to heat up.
The landscape in both leagues has shifted significantly over the past week, with several contenders making strong pushes while others have seen their cases take a hit.
Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in the American League and National League MVP races.
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Biggest Risers:
Just a few weeks ago, Shohei Ohtani appeared to be running away with the National League MVP race, sitting as the overwhelming favorite on the oddsboard. While Pete Crow-Armstrong had the second-best odds, he was still viewed as a big long shot at +750. Fast-forward three and a half weeks, and the race has dramatically changed. For the first time all season, Crow-Armstrong is now the favorite to win NL MVP, surpassing Ohtani after his late-game heroics on Monday night.
In a Crosstown showdown against the White Sox on Monday night, PCA went 4-5 with two home runs and three RBIs. More importantly, he delivered his MVP moment. With the game tied in the bottom of the 10th inning, Crow-Armstrong sent a walk-off home run over the right-field ivy, sending Wrigley Field into a frenzy. The homer was also his 30th of the season, making him a member of the 30/30 club. Sometimes, one signature moment can cement an MVP case. For PCA, this may have been it, as his walk-off heroics completely flipped the oddsboard.
Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters over the past two months or so. In June, the 24-year-old had a .381 average with 11 home runs, 20 RBIs, and a .468 OBP. In July, PCA hit .278 with six home runs, 17 RBIs, and a .400 on-base percentage. Through the first 17 days of August, PCA is hitting .273 with six home runs and 15 RBIs, and his play has been a huge reason the Cubs are 20 games above .500.
Since June, Crow-Armstrong has raised his season batting average from .242 to .281, emerging as a legitimate threat to Ohtani’s three-peat MVP campaign.
Yordan Álvarez continues to separate himself in the American League MVP race, putting together what is shaping up to be a historic season. He ranks first in MLB with a .321 batting average, is second in the majors with 36 home runs, and sits fourth with 88 RBIs, officially putting himself in the Triple Crown conversation.
The Astros slugger has only strengthened his case since the All-Star break. He has raised his batting average from .318 to .321 while recording 10 multi-hit games. As a result, his AL MVP odds have climbed over the past few weeks, moving from -165 all the way to -1200.
Biggest Fallers:
On July 18, Ohtani was the overwhelming -1500 favorite to win the NL MVP. Now, he is no longer the favorite as he is +125 to win the award compared to PCA’s odds of -155.
Since the All-Star break, Ohtani’s batting average has actually gone up from .293 to .295. He also has seven home runs and 20 RBIs in that span. Like PCA, on Monday night, Ohtani went 4-5 and hit two home runs against the Rockies. However, his great game was overshadowed by PCA’s signature moment in what continues to be an epic back-and-fourth MVP showdown between two of the game’s best.
However, the biggest reason for Ohtani’s slide over the past month has been the lingering soreness in his left knee, which has kept him off the mound. Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has emphasized that the team plans to be cautious with his return.
For much of the season, the NL MVP race appeared to be all but over. Now, with Crow-Armstrong surging and Ohtani’s injury concerns, the two-man race has become the sport’s biggest storyline.
A few weeks ago, Bobby Witt Jr. had the third-best odds to win MVP at +500. Now, after missing some time with lower back tightness, combined with Álvarez’s surge, his odds have fallen to +7000.
Since the All-Star break, Witt’s batting average has remained at .286, but he is coming off three multi-hit games in the last week, including a 3-4 performance Monday night with a home run and three RBIs. While Witt continues to produce consistently, Álvarez’s dominance in the AL may simply be too much to overcome.
Let’s check out the odds to win AL and NL MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Aug. 18.
Odds to Win NL MVP
Pete Crow-Armstrong: -155 (bet $10 to win $16.45 total)
Shohei Ohtani: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Odds to Win AL MVP
Yordan Alvarez: -1200 (bet $10 to win $10.83 total)
Junior Caminero: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Ben Rice: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Dillon Dingler: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Bobby Witt Jr.: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)