One of the most overused terms in professional sports is “must-win.”
I can’t even count how many times I’ve sat in a bar or barbershop and argued with people about a must-win Major League Baseball game before the calendar flipped to September, or a gotta-have-it NFL game in November.
Pain.
Must-win games in true form, though, are elite. And it sure feels like Wednesday night’s NBA Finals game between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs fits the bill.
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The Knicks currently lead the best-of-seven series 2-1, but a second straight home loss would swing things back to San Antonio in a 2-2 banana split. If the Knicks protect home court, they’ll force the Spurs to win Games 5, 6 and 7 to hoist a trophy.
New York’s star guard Jalen Brunson is clearly playing through pain and his inefficiency is eye-opening. Sure, he scored 30, 20 and 32 points in the first three Finals games, but whew, is he logging hard time.
Brunson is constantly hitting the deck, and it’s impossible not to notice his 30-for-81 (37%) shooting, 10 percentage points lower than his season average.
If Brunson can’t finish strong, the Knicks are in trouble.
So, are they?
“No,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told me from Las Vegas. “The Knicks have shown they’re more than capable of winning in San Antonio if need be,” he continued. “Karl-Anthony Towns needs to be more assertive than last game and their offense will look like it did the previous dozen games or so.”
The big-man battle between Wemby and KAT could determine the NBA Finals (Getty Images).
Across town, VSIN talk show host and basketball aficionado Jonathan Von Tobel has concerns.
“Obviously, the Knicks can still win the series, but I’m nervous about their chances for sure,” Von Tobel said.
“The Spurs had success attacking Brunson, and he can’t defend. Officials are starting to make the Knicks pay for how physical they’ve played Wemby, too. Mike Brown can’t keep playing [Jose] Alvarado and [Jordan] Clarkson the way he has. But Towns can still win the matchup with Wemby and OG [Anunoby] kills mismatches.
“I think we will get a Game 7.”
As for Game 4, Vegas oddsmakers are saying flip a coin. The Knicks opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the line hasn’t budged much. Most sportsbooks are dealing New York -2, which obviously still power rates San Antonio higher on a neutral court.
And let’s be real, home court hasn’t mattered much.
The Spurs are such a young squad, but man, they are so dangerous at their defensive best. It’s tough for me not to look their way with that 7-foot-4 French pterodactyl roaming the court with his 8-foot wingspan.
Some shops in the market have San Antonio +115 on the moneyline and that’s my favorite play for Wednesday night. I thought about the Spurs to come back and win the Finals at +155, too, but would much rather roll the dice on one event.
Count me in for that banana split.