Expectation Tiers: Redefining Success For All 32 Teams At Season’s Halfway Point

Nine weeks ago, fan bases for all 32 NFL teams had hope. Many thought this could be the year their favorite team won the Lombardi Trophy, while others were hopeful that they could just see their team remain on the “In The Hunt” playoff graphic in December.

Now, as the NFL season has reached the halfway mark, it’s evident that some teams might have higher expectations than they did at the start of the year. And for others, they are just hoping for anything positive to happen over the next two months.

So, let’s redefine what a successful season looks like for all 32 teams based on how the first nine weeks have gone. I did this exercise at the start of the season, and many teams are on track to either meet or exceed the expectations I set for them entering the year. And then there are others who are quite clearly playing for draft position at this point.

Let’s dive into my expectation tiers for all 32 teams for the rest of the year.

Just Try To Look Like You’re Not Actively Tanking And Maybe Get A Top Pick

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Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

Easily the most shocking and complete disappointment of the season. Mike McDaniel’s offense is dead last in scoring, and the Chargers’ defense is in the bottom five as well. If they don’t end their skid against the Jets next week, there’s a legitimate question to be asked as to whether anyone’s Super Bowl pick has gone winless in a season. They’re in line for the No. 1 overall pick, and if they stick with Justin Herbert, could package that for a haul of picks to help the franchise reset, likely with a new coach.

First-half performance: Way below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Get that young QB a taste of meaningful football

Cam Ward has regressed in his second year, with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions, so any hope of an emergence under OC Brian Daboll seems lost. Five of the seven losses are by single digits, so they’re better on defense and fighting for Robert Saleh but just not winning. Two of their next three are the Jaguars, where even playing close would be impressive. Can they pull out late-season wins against the Colts and Raiders? At least right now, they have the No. 2 overall pick, which might mean drafting another quarterback.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Miss the playoffs, but just win, baby

We knew this would be a long first year for Jeff Hafley, and Miami is in line for the No. 3 overall pick right now. Losing running back De’Von Achane killed any chance of competing this season. With limited talent to throw to, quarterback Malik Willis has six touchdowns in eight games, and hasn’t shown enough to keep the Dolphins from using their top pick on a passer. Rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez looks like a keeper and future leader.

First-half performance: As expected.

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Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

The Chargers are the only thing keeping the Eagles from being the league’s biggest disappointment, with seven straight losses, the abrupt retirement of tackle Lane Johnson and a health scare with Jalen Hurts dealing with blood clots and out indefinitely. Could Nick Sirianni, two years removed from a Super Bowl win, be in trouble? The offense ranks 30th in scoring, and the defense has struggled without the same injuries to explain it. They’ve started three quarterbacks already and haven’t won since Week 2.

First-half performance: Well below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Miss the playoffs, but just win, baby

They lost to the Dolphins. Rookie David Bailey has 7.5 sacks and leads the NFL with five forced fumbles, but this is still a bottom-half defense, which you don’t expect from an Aaron Glenn team. They still have the Chargers and Dolphins on the schedule, but they’ll do well to get to five wins, which could mean another coaching change in addition to a new quarterback. They currently hold the fourth, sixth and 13th picks in the 2027 draft entering Week 10, which should set this team up to be much better next season.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

They were the biggest fire-sellers of 2026, dealing Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson to the Seahawks and defensive lineman DeForest Buckner back to the 49ers. GM Chris Ballard has already been fired and head coach Shane Steichen seems like all but a formality to join him. A year ago, they were close enough to deal two first-rounders for Sauce Gardner, and now their struggles don’t even net them a high first-round pick. Even in a bad division, they feel far from contention.

First-half performance: Well below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Get that young QB a taste of meaningful football

They beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, but have only one other win after entering the season with hopes they could be closer to their breakout 2024 success. They’ve avoided throwing interceptions, but there’s little else they do well, ranking dead last in the NFL in third-down conversion rate. Dan Quinn has had questionable endgame decisions and, barring a surprise rebound in the second half, could be out of a job after the season.

First-half performance: Well below expectations.

Someone By Rule Must Win The NFC South

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Preseason line for success: Just win the NFC South

Quarterback injuries set up an 0-2 start, and after a promising first two starts with Michael Penix, beating the Packers and Saints by a combined 42 points, they’ve since dropped four of their last five. Losing edge rusher Jalon Walker to a season-ending injury and edge rusher James Pearce to an eight-game suspension caught up with their defense, which has given up 30-plus points in three of their last four losses. Trading safety Jessie Bates nets them a second-round pick, but it also suggests you don’t think you can compete when you’re a half-game out of first.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Just win the NFC South

The Saints have split two games on two-point conversions in overtime, so they could easily be 4-4 or 2-6, and if they can get a home win against Carolina on Sunday, they’ll be in first place in the NFC South. Their biggest additions on offense have been limited by injury, with first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson playing only one game and free-agent running back Travis Etienne playing only three. Their defense ranks 27th in the league, and unless that improves, they might not be able to outscore too many opponents.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Just win the NFC South

Carolina jumped out to a 3-2 start, but two of the three wins were against backup quarterbacks, and they’ve lost three straight while averaging just 18 points per game. The defense struggled enough that coordinator Ejiro Evero was fired. They gave Jaelan Phillips $30 million a year to help their pass rush, and he’s totaled 2.5 sacks in the five games he’s played. Like anyone in the division, it’s theirs for the taking if they can win their divisional games, but a 30-point loss to the Bucs suggests that might be tough.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

(Photo by Parker S. Freedman/Getty Images)

Preseason line for success: Just win the NFC South

Entering the year as the NFC South’s team to beat, they opened the season 0-4 and 1-5, with Baker Mayfield ineffective and missing three games due to a thumb injury. They dominated their first two division games, rushing for 258 yards against Carolina and 324 against Atlanta. Can a ballhawking defense and Bucky Irving’s strong running be enough to pull that out of a giant hole and win a bad division? Mayfield will need to reduce his turnovers, but the remaining schedule has plenty of winnable games.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

Continue Your Surprising Success Without Making The Playoffs

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Preseason line for success: Miss the playoffs, but just win, baby

Beating the Chargers, Rams and Cowboys would seem amazing by preseason expectations, and the Cardinals have done well to win those three games. They’re still clearly the worst team in a great division, and they benched and traded Jacoby Brissett. They’re now turning to third-round rookie Carson Beck, who’ll have an eight-game audition to be the franchise’s quarterback in 2027. Top pick Jeremiyah Love has been injured and underwhelming, and right now, they’re picking ninth overall, which might be too late to land a top-tier quarterback.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Miss the playoffs, but just win, baby

Todd Monken’s debut season has been a surprise success, with Mike Rutenberg’s defense leading the way. Rookie receivers Denzel Boston and K.C. Concepcion are both playmakers, and second-year linebacker Carson Schwesinger is a tackling machine. Also surprising that Jared Verse has zero sacks in nine games since coming over in the Myles Garrett trade. Whether they play Deshaun Watson more or not, they need to draft a quarterback they can build their future around, even though they pick 16th and 18th right now.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Miss the playoffs, but just win, baby

A 3-0 start was impressive, but looking back, they beat the Chargers and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-15. Going with veteran Kirk Cousins over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza helped them win games now. But the rookie’s development is now the priority. They traded Cousins this week, and Mendoza will start the remainder of the season. This is still the NFL’s worst defense, giving up at least 30 points in their last six games, so Rob Leonard might not be the answer there. Maybe the switch to Mendoza will spark excitement for more progress in 2027.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

Make The Playoffs, Or It’s Disappointing

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Preseason line for success: Reach the AFC Championship Game

After a surprising 0-4 start, they’ve won three of four with their only loss in overtime to the Giants. Only one NFL team has ever gone from 0-4 to the playoffs (shoutout to the 1992 Chargers), but the Texans have a shot with a light remaining schedule. C.J. Stroud is in line for a huge contract, throwing for 16 touchdowns against two interceptions. This was arguably the best defense in the NFL, so the challenge is getting that side back to something close to that dominance.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

The defense was supposed to get better, right? They’re marginally improved, but they’ve still given up at least 20 points in every game, which is why they lose to a team like Arizona and still must face the other three much better teams in the NFC West. It’s still a potent offense with two elite receivers, and all they have to do is chase down the Giants with a backup quarterback. A tougher remaining non-division schedule might work against them in that effort.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Reach the AFC Championship Game

The expectations were remarkably high for the Ravens and first-year coach Jesse Minter, but they’ve lost four straight, three with backup quarterbacks. Can newly acquired Jacoby Brissett rally them from what is currently a 5 percent chance to make the playoffs? The defense has given up 30-plus points in three straight, but they close the year with four straight AFC North games, including both Pittsburgh games, and might need to sweep all four to get back in the playoffs.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Get that young QB a taste of meaningful football

Fans were optimistic about John Harbaugh’s first season, and even without quarterback Jaxson Dart, the Giants are in first place in a struggling NFC East. A tough final stretch has them playing at Seattle, at Detroit and at Dallas in the last five weeks of the season, but the Cowboys are perhaps the only real threat to challenge them for the division. Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese looks like a beast, and they’ve won with three different starting quarterbacks, so this is about surviving chaos as much as anything.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

Half of the Steelers’ wins are against the lowly NFC South, but Pittsburgh has been strong on defense, ranking fourth in points allowed and giving up fewer points four weeks in a row. Jaylen Warren leads the NFL in yards per carry (5.9) and Aaron Rodgers has 13 touchdown passes at age 43. The Steelers’ schedule gets tougher. If they can sweep Cincinnati, anything is possible, but if not, they’re competing for a wild card and get the Ravens twice in the final four weeks of the season.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

Success Means At Least One Playoff Victory

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Preseason line for success: Super Bowl or bust

Preseason expectations don’t get higher than what the Rams had, but as Superteams go, Los Angeles has disappointed. Myles Garrett has barely played due to injury, Aaron Donald has zero sacks since coming out of retirement, and Matthew Stafford already has more interceptions than he had as NFL MVP last year, with 30 fewer touchdown passes. If they get things right, it’ll set up two intense meetings with the Seahawks in the final three weeks, with another in the playoffs feeling very possible. But with Puka Nacua becoming the latest Rams star to be sidelined due to injury this week, giving Los Angeles Super Bowl expectations at this point of the season seems a bit too high.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

The defense has improved much in their four-game win streak, allowing 15.5 points per game after giving up twice as much in a 2-2 start. Jared Goff has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions, Jahmyr Gibbs has 11 total touchdowns, and they’re 2-0 in the division with both games against former Lions coordinator Ben Johnson and his Bears still remaining. The expectation was a strong return to the playoffs, and they’re still in the thick of it in the toughest division in the league.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

Joe Burrow is off to the best start of his career, and even the Bengals’ defense has come around, giving up a touchdown less per game than they did last year with the acquisition of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. Free-agent addition Boye Mafe already has 5.5 sacks, as much as any Bengals player finished with last season. The remaining schedule is easy enough they’re competing not only for the AFC North but for the AFC’s top seed, with all signs pointing to a return to the playoffs after a three-year absence.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

Their defense has been elite, and they were the league’s last standing unbeaten team despite mediocre play from quarterback Kyler Murray. Brian Flores’ blitz-crazy defense has been dominant, giving up the fewest points and piling up the most sacks, led by Andrew Van Ginkel (6.5) and Dallas Turner (6.0). The Vikings have already won three games while scoring 16 points or fewer. The entire rest of the NFL has five such games this season. Defense wins championships, but does only defense do that? We’ll see if the addition of Kirk Cousins helps. For now, though, we have to see more from the offense before putting them in the top tier.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Make it to the playoffs, at least

Such a strange thing, to be 6-3 and in last place in a super-tough NFC North. They’ve done it without Micah Parsons and with barely any contributions from Josh Jacobs, so there’s reason to think their second half could exceed their first. Jordan Love has 19 touchdown passes and leads the league in passing yards. They’re 1-2 in the division, so they need to flip that in the second half to avoid being behind on all the tiebreakers as the NFC North tries to stake a claim to all three NFC wild cards.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Reach the AFC Championship Game

Everyone expected some regression with a first-place schedule, but they’re three losses behind the Bills after a humbling 45-27 home loss to the Packers. Remember when Drake Maye was the MVP runner-up? He leads the NFL with 11 interceptions. Perhaps the healthy return of A.J. Brown will help him, as could matchups against the Jets and Dolphins in their final three games. They host the Bills on Dec. 6, and a sweep there at least gives them a shot at repeating as division champs, but it doesn’t look promising.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Reach the AFC Championship Game

A middling offense hasn’t stopped the Broncos from winning. No Denver player has caught more than two touchdowns, including newcomer Jaylen Waddle. Their only losses are to the Chiefs and 49ers, and they’re on thin ice with a perfect record in one-score games. That’s supposed to be unsustainable, but the Broncos have a path to repeating as the AFC’s top seed if they just take care of a remarkably light remaining schedule: Dolphins, Jets, Chargers and twice against the Raiders.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

Not Making The Super Bowl Would Feel Disappointing At This Point

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Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

The Chiefs have already matched last year’s win total, jumping out to a 5-0 start before taking losses to the Seahawks and Broncos. Kenneth Walker has been the running back presence they’ve sorely missed throughout Patrick Mahomes’ time in Kansas City, and Mahomes has 14 touchdown passes despite minimal impact from his receiving corps. Maybe that’ll change with Josh Downs now in the fold. They’ve split two games with Denver, so the AFC West title could just be decided the third game between these two will be in the playoffs.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Super Bowl or bust

The defending champs are getting it done on defense. They’ve allowed the fewest yards and fourth-fewest points, with a league-high three wins in which they held opponents to under 10 points. But the offense seems to miss Klint Kubiak, not ranking in the top half of the league in any major category. Sam Darnold barely has more touchdowns than interceptions, and perhaps getting their running backs healthy will give them something other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a reliable, productive scoring threat.

First-half performance: Below expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

The Jaguars have the biggest lead of any division leader, sitting three games up on the Texans, and Jacksonville has outscored opponents by a league-high 108 points. Liam Coen’s staff has two of the league’s hottest coordinators — Grant Udinski on offense, Anthony Campanile on defense — and they just traded multiple premium draft picks to land safety Jessie Bates and defensive tackle Jordan Davis. Wouldn’t it be wild if the AFC Championship Game were to be played in a half-capacity stadium under major renovations? It’s a real possibility.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

Preseason line for success: Super Bowl or bust

The dream of hosting an AFC Championship Game in brand-new Highmark Stadium is very real, with Josh Allen leading the No. 1 offense in points and total yards per game. They still must face both AFC West heavyweights (Chiefs and Broncos), though, on their path to secure home-field advantage. Their middling defense may need to improve to really contend for the AFC top seed, but they’ve scored at least 24 points in every game, so then again, maybe not.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

(Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

Ben Johnson’s second year has impressed, winning with three different quarterbacks in September and building top-10 units on both sides of the ball. Trading for Jeffery Simmons was arguably the biggest move of the trade deadline, adding a major piece to what was already an elite defense. They close the year with three straight division showdowns, two of them at home, and those will largely decide which NFC North team is hosting playoff games and which are on the road.

First-half performance: Above expectations.

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Preseason line for success: Win at least one playoff game

The age of their offensive skill position players hasn’t caught up with them yet, and they only got older when they traded for wide receiver Keenan Allen on Tuesday. Mike Evans is injured, but Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have a combined 15 touchdowns, and Brock Purdy is on pace for a career-high in touchdown passes. They’re 3-0 in the NFC West, and if they can sustain it, the NFC path to the Super Bowl goes through Santa Clara. The Seahawks and Rams would both be dangerous as playoff opponents, but the 49ers have beaten both on the road (well, they took down the Rams in Australia) already.

First-half performance: Well above expectations.