One of the fun things about the NFL Draft is that the possible outcomes are endless. Yes, the expectation is that the Las Vegas Raiders will select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick when the 2026 NFL Draft commences on Thursday.
After that, however, things get interesting. There’s no clear favorite of whom the New York Jets will take at No. 2. The potential landing spots for Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson remain up in the air, as we don’t know if there’ll be two quarterbacks taken in the first round.
The New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals also added some intrigue on Saturday, with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence going to the Queen City for the 10th overall pick. With the trade, the Giants are the only team in this year’s draft with two top-10 picks.
So, let’s delve into five of the biggest questions entering the 2026 NFL Draft and answer each of them with a bold prediction.
5. Jets on the clock at No. 2: David Bailey, Arvell Reese … or a wild card?
The New York Jets and head coach Aaron Glenn might be deciding which one of the draft’s two best edge rusher prospects (Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, Texas Tech’s David Bailey) they want to take at No. 2. Reese, considered one of the best players available in this year’s draft, has better measurable and more upside. Bailey, meanwhile, is the more polished product, totaling 14.5 sacks in his final season for the Red Raiders.
But is there a chance that another player is in the mix for New York at No. 2?
Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is widely viewed as one of the top players in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Jets canceled a pre-draft visit with Bailey at their facility this past week, adding some intrigue to their decision. That news led some NFL observers to wonder if New York had already made the decision to select the Texas Tech product because it knows enough about him as a person, or the Jets decided against taking Bailey, therefore canceling the visit.
Positional value is a consideration, with teams angling to select premium players early in the draft because of the salary they will command as top picks compared to the value of the top players at their position.
However, three of the top six overall players in this year’s draft — running back Jeremiyah Love, linebacker Sonny Styles and safety Caleb Downs — are elite talents at non-premium positions. Further, history tells us that there’s a 50% hit rate on first-round picks. And if you’re the dysfunctional Jets, who hold the longest playoff drought in the league, you’re trying to improve those odds by taking the player most likely to have a productive NFL career, no matter that position.
Prediction: The Jets stun everyone and take Downs at No. 2.
Downs is a transformational player who can serve as a face of a franchise in a big market like New York, creating connectivity in a building that needs a culture upgrade. As a versatile safety who can line up at a handful of different positions, Downs fits the “Big Nickel” role teams covet being filled by players like Kyle Hamilton, Nick Emmanwori and Derwin James in some of the best defenses in the league.
Also, the Jets have several other bites at the apple early in the draft to secure players from premium positions in the future. New York has nine first and second-round picks over the next two years, including three first-round picks in 2027. That means New York can be selective in how they use those picks at other positions, taking players with those picks or using the selections in a trade to obtain a premium player to improve their roster.
The Jets already have a Pro Bowl running back, placing the franchise tag on Breece Hall earlier this offseason. Some NFL sources I spoke with consider Love to be the best player in the draft, but that would be redundant for the Jets.
The next safest pick? Downs. So, Caleb, welcome to New York.
4. Is Chiefs GM Brett Veach correct that we’ll see a trade-heavy first round?
The 2025 NFL Draft was memorably light on trades. Entering draft night, no first-round pick had been moved, and there were only four trades involving a first-round pick on draft night.
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects that number to be higher this year.
“It should be an entertaining night and there will probably be a lot of trades,” Veach told reporters this past week. “That’s what I think a draft like this — when you don’t have two or three franchise quarterbacks and a Will Anderson Jr. or a Myles Garrett — it does lend itself to open up to a lot of fun, a lot of excitement. I think from a fan’s perspective, they should have a lot of fun next Thursday.”
Could Alabama’s Ty Simpson be at the center of a trade in the first round? (Photo by CFP/Getty Images)
Veach pointed to a lack of premium players at the top of this year’s draft, along with premium players at offensive tackle, defensive end and receiver being graded closely, leaving teams moving around the board to get in place to draft their guy.
Also, six teams (Jets, Chiefs, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys) have two selections in the first round, giving them more ammunition to make moves. Six teams have no first-round selections, with the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all set to sit out the festivities on Thursday … for now.
Prediction: There will be at least eight draft-day trades in the first round. We won’t predict all of them, but there’s one that I think will happen that I’ll share in a moment.
3. Does an A.J. Brown trade materialize? Does any veteran player get moved?
The Philadelphia Eagles are shopping A.J. Brown, with the Los Angeles Rams coming close to consummating a trade for their star wide receiver that potentially could have included moving Davante Adams, according to the team. The New England Patriots are also a prime destination for Brown because of his relationship with head coach Mike Vrabel.
Some of the moves Philadelphia has made this offseason have also seemingly signaled that a trade involving Brown is on the horizon. The Eagles have traded for Green Bay Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks and signed Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency, signs they’re preparing for life without Brown.
However, one of the main reasons Brown remains with the Eagles is cap space. Philadelphia takes a $43.4 million dead money salary cap hit if they trade Brown before June 1. That lowers to just over $16 million if the Eagles move Brown after June 1, so Roseman is biding his time.
Brandon Aiyuk has been at the center of trade rumors for several months as his time with 49ers seems to be coming to an end. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
There are a few other veteran players who are trade candidates this week. San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Colts defensive back Kenny Moore and quarterback Anthony Richardson are among the group of notable vets who have been dangled in trade rumors this offseason, but have remained put.
Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz said the team will not trade receiver Quentin Johnston, while star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence became unavailable after the Giants agreed to ship him to the Bengals for the 10th pick in one of the biggest trades of the offseason.
So, will any of those players join Lawrence in getting traded this week?
Prediction: No Brown trade during the draft, but Aiyuk will be traded by the 49ers. The 49ers voided all the guarantees in Aiyuk’s contract after he refused to rehab his knee injury at the team’s facility last season.
Aiyuk wants to reunite with former Arizona State teammate Jayden Daniels in Washington. And with Commanders general manager Adam Peters’ familiarity with Aiyuk from his time in San Francisco, it makes sense for Washington to trade for Aiyuk now and get him into offseason work instead of waiting for his inevitable release.
2. How many receivers will be selected in the first round?
While this draft class might not be deep at quarterback and lacks some star names, it’s a good year for wide receiver-needy teams. FOX Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang has seven receivers ranked in the top 60 of his 150-player big board.
Getting a quality wide receiver on a first-round rookie contract might also be the second-most valuable contract in the sport, behind a quarterback on a first-round rookie contract. The franchise tag of $27.3 million for receivers is No. 2 in the league behind quarterbacks, as that number has continued to grow in recent years. Teams are now paying receivers like Alec Pierce nearly $30 million annually, taking up large portions of their cap space.
So, in a draft that is short on blue-chip prospects but loaded with talented receivers with different skill sets, it makes sense to grab a plug-and-play receiver now instead of overpaying in free agency.
Prediction: Seven receivers will be selected in the first round, which would tie an NFL record of seven selected in the 2004 draft. That was when the Arizona Cardinals took future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald with the third overall pick. Maybe Arizona can repeat history this year?
1. Where will Ty Simpson land?
Much like last year, when Cam Ward was the consensus No. 1 pick and there were some questions about whether a second quarterback would be taken in the first round, this year it’s Mendoza at No. 1 and uncertainty if another signal caller will be selected among the top 32 picks.
But if one is taken, it will be Alabama’s Ty Simpson.
The Arizona Cardinals pick at No. 3 and had Simpson in for a visit this past week. The Cardinals will not take Simpson at three, but could trade back up at the end of the first round to get the fifth-year option on Simpson.
Ty Simpson in Joel Klatt’s top 50 players 🏈
Arizona has not named a starter for the upcoming season. Last year’s starter, Jacoby Brissett, is not attending offseason work in hopes of securing more guaranteed money as the frontrunner to start this season. Simpson fits what new head coach Mike LaFleur wants to do on offense.
The Jets at No. 16 could also make sense, but Geno Smith has been brought in to start in New York.
Prediction: The Arizona Cardinals trade with the Seattle Seahawks to move up to the end of the first round to select Simpson.