After months of buildup, we’re finally starting to see how the 2026 NFL Draft might shake out. We already know Fernando Mendoza will almost certainly be the No. 1 overall pick, and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson might join him in the first round.
But is a first-round evaluation of Simpson the correct one? Are the first-round evaluations of other top prospects also correct?
We surveyed numerous scouts and executives across the NFL to figure out which prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft are underhyped and overhyped as we’re less than two weeks from one of the league’s grand events. One of the things we came away with was that there wasn’t even a consensus on Mendoza, let alone Simpson and some of the other quarterbacks.
So, which prospects should we be keeping our eyes on ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft? Here are the prospects executives think are getting too much hype, and the ones who aren’t getting enough hype.
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Scout, assistant GM don’t believe in first-round hype surrounding Ty Simpson
Ralph Vacchiano: Most people around the league seem to believe there is only one quarterback truly worthy of being picked in the first round of the NFL Draft this year.
Don’t be surprised if there are two.
“You see it every year. Quarterbacks are so important we end up talking ourselves into guys who either aren’t really good enough, or just aren’t ready,” one assistant general manager told me. “We spend a million hours on them, and because there are so few who can really play in the league, guys with just a little bit of talent end up looking like stars by comparison.
“They end up getting overhyped, and then they end up getting overdrafted. Happens every year.”
The one to watch this year: Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.
Ty Simpson celebrates after Alabama knocked out Oklahoma from the College Football Playoff last season. (CFP/Getty Images)
“We’re talking about him as a first-rounder now?” one scout told me. “That’s less about him, more about the lack of other quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong: I like him. Smart kid, good tools, plenty of potential. But he’s small (6-foot-1, 211) and barely played (15 college starts).
“He needs more time. And you can’t draft a developmental prospect in the first round. But I bet somebody will.”
Simpson, in fact, will be at the NFL Draft in Pittsburgh — a sign that someone either in his camp or the league is convinced he’ll be taken in the top 32 picks.
“And he’s probably right,” the assistant general manager told me. “Nobody’s letting him go there to be embarrassed. It means someone has convinced themselves he’s a first-round pick, even if most people don’t think he is.”
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One NFL Scout is not sold on Fernando Mendoza
Eric D. Williams: In an earlier NFL Confidential published during the NFL Scouting Combine, anticipated No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza tied with Ohio State safety Caleb Downs in our informal poll of a small group of NFL executives and scouts asked to rank the top overall player in this year’s draft.
However, even though he’s considered the No. 1 QB in this year’s draft class, Mendoza has detractors. Some scouts questioned the Indiana product’s arm strength, athleticism and ability to adjust to a pro-style offense once the Las Vegas Raiders eventually make him the No. 1 overall pick.
“His footwork is all over the road because of the RPO (run-pass option) offense,” a longtime NFL scout told me. “He has adequate deep ball strength, but his accuracy is inconsistent deep. He has good anticipation and zip on timing routes and good accuracy short to intermediate, but he’s not accurate when pressured.”
Fernando Mendoza in Joel Klatt’s top 50 players
The longtime scout lauded Mendoza’s toughness and willingness to deliver a strike while taking a hit under pressure, but also had concerns with how the Heisman Trophy winner’s “Leave it to Beaver” personality would translate to an NFL building.
“He is tough and will take a shot to the chest to complete a pass,” the scout told me. “He has talent, but a questionable ceiling — this might be the floor and the ceiling.
“I don’t know if the goody two-shoes, LinkedIn personality will fit into the diversity of an NFL locker room.”
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Which QBs are flying under the radar?
Vacchiano and Williams: In a quarterback class that the NFL generally doesn’t love, there are a couple of potential late-round gems: Penn State’s Drew Allar and North Dakota State’s Cole Payton.
In fact, there are some NFL people who believe Allar has the talent to be drafted much higher than he probably will be.
“Most people think he’s a Day 3 guy, but I think he should go on Day 2,” one scout told us. “He looked like a potential first-rounder as a junior, before that [ankle] injury ruined his senior year. He can play. He’s got a big arm. He just needs more experience because he’s so inconsistent.
“But when the tools are there in a guy that big (6-5, 228), how can you not like that?”
Drew Allar put up strong stats during his college career at Penn State, but struggled in big moments. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
However, I also asked FOX Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang to participate in this exercise, and he mentioned Allar as one of the two prospects he’s frowning upon.
“I think he’s being overrated because people are seeing the traits, and they believe those traits are going to result in a consistency that we’ve never seen from him at the college level,” Rang said. “He has the size, the arm and certainly looks the part. And talks the talk, in terms of he’s got the intangibles you’re looking for.
“He’s just never proven himself to be a very instinctive playmaker. There’s deer-in-the-headlights moments of his game that you just don’t expect for a player who’s played as long as he has.”
Allar was productive in his college career. He threw for 7,402 yards, 61 touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go with 12 rushing touchdowns in 45 career games at Penn State. But he also threw costly interceptions in some big moments at Penn State, like in its loss to Notre Dame in the 2025 Orange Bowl and its loss against Oregon this past season.
As for Payton, two scouts agreed that he was a “project” because he played at the FCS level and he only started one year.
“But if he played at almost any [FBS] school, we’d all have him rated higher than Ty Simpson,” the assistant general manager told us.
“I think he has an upside to him,” a longtime NFL scout told us about Payton. “He can drive the ball down the field. [He’s got] poise and calmness in the pocket and in his play. He’s good rolling out left with accuracy. He can extend plays, a good scrambler. He’s a strong, up-field runner with contact power. And he’s nifty and shifty as a runner.”
North Dakota State’s Cole Payton might be a name for NFL fans to know in the future. (Photo by Tommy Martino/University of Montana/Getty Images)
Payton (6-3, 233) threw for 2,719 yards with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions last season, while rushing for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns.
“People are talking about a position switch, or being a gimmick guy,” the assistant general manager said. “Yeah, in his first year, you might want to find a way to get him on the field for a few plays because he’s so athletic. But in time, he could be an NFL quarterback. The tools are there.”
“He’s the best dual-threat quarterback in the draft,” added one of the scouts. “He might need three years to develop. But have you seen some of the backups in this league? This kid might be worth the time.”
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Which potential first-round picks should be getting more love?
Vacchiano: Two other players that came up as “underrated” players in this draft, in conversations that I had with league sources: Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson and Miami (Fla.) edge rusher Akheem Mesidor.
On Tyson, one scout told me that the two-time first-team All-Big 12 member “might be the best receiver in this draft when it’s all said and done.”
His [hamstring] injuries last year really hurt him, but when he’s healthy, he can do it all,” the scout added. “He can run every route, is strong enough to battle for the ball. His speed is good enough. He’s going to have a lot of 1,000-yard seasons in the league if he stays healthy.”
As for Mesidor, a scout told me that while he’s probably behind the other top edge rusher prospects, his tape is too good to overlook.
“I know all the knocks: He’s undersized (6-3, 259), he’s old (25), he’s battled injuries. I get it. But he can play,” the scout said. “If he had stayed healthy and played off the edge his entire career, we’d be talking about him as a first-round pick. I’d probably rank him below the top edge rushers (Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Ruben Bain) for all those reasons. But on the field, I don’t think he’s all that far behind them.”
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Which potential first-round pick is getting too much love?
Vacchiano: Who is the most overrated prospect in this year’s draft? Two scouts mentioned Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, who is generally regarded as a first-round pick, though some mock drafts have put him inside the top 10.
“No way is he a top 10 pick,” one of the scouts told me. “There’s a lot to work with. He’s got great size for an NFL tackle (6-7, 315). He showed everyone at the combine how athletic he is and how good he can move. But the film doesn’t match. His mechanics get sloppy at times. He got away with it in college, but it’s going to take some time for him in the NFL.”
Freeling was named second-team All-SEC this past season. However, it was his lone season as a full-time starter in college, which is why the other scout thinks Freeling might need some time to develop.
“It’s not that he’s a bad player at all,” the other scout told me. “It’s about how high he’s ranked. He’s not in the class of [Utah’s Spencer Fano or Miami’s Francis Mauigoa]. He might be more like the fourth or fifth tackle on some boards. With that size, that’s still first-round quality. There’s a lot there to work with. But he needs work. There are a few other guys more ready to be plugged right in.”
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One top non-Power 4 prospect falling, and another on the rise?
Williams: Another player who could be selected later than projected, according to the scouts I spoke with, is versatile Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds with decent athletic traits, McNeil-Warren is a long, rangy athlete who finished with four interceptions at Toledo.
Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has earned some first-round buzz after being named a second-team All-American this past season. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
McNeil-Warren is projected by several draft analysts to go in the first round. However, the longtime scouts I spoke with pointed to concerns with how the Toledo product’s skill set would transition to the NFL.
“He scares me because he collision tackles with his head down too much,” the scout told me. “He’s best in zone coverage but will struggle in man coverage due to his speed and athletic ability. He lacks closing speed and deep speed.”
Added another scout: “He’s a good player, but not dominant enough for the first round in my opinion.”
Meanwhile, North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance is a sleeper to watch in this year’s draft, according to scouts I spoke with.
“He’s a tall, athletic long strider with deceiving deep and long speed,” a longtime scout said about Lance. “He takes pride in his blocking and has good toughness to his play. … He looks like he could be a good gunner with his speed and toughness.”
North Dakota State’s Bryce Lance might be the next small-school wide receiver to make it big in the NFL. (Photo by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
Lance, who is the younger brother of Los Angeles Chargers backup quarterback Trey Lance, tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine, posting a 4.34-second, 40-yard time, a 41.5-inch vertical jump and an 11-foot, 1-inch broad jump at 6-foot-3 and 204 pounds.
In terms of production, Lance finished with 51 catches for 1,079 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, averaging an impressive 21.2 yards per reception this past season. He also helped North Dakota State win the school’s 10th FCS title in 2024 and is projected to be a mid-round pick.
Other under-the-radar prospects in the non-power conference scouts said to be on the lookout for include Georgia State receiver Ted Hurst and Toledo cornerbacks Andre Fuller and Avery Smith.
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Which prospects does our draft expert think are underhyped?
Williams: Our Rob Rang also weighed in for this exercise, pointing to Washington running back Jonah Coleman as one of the two players he thinks deserve more followers with less than two weeks before the start of the draft.
Rang believes Coleman’s ability to run through the trash in between the tackles and work ethic will translate to the next level, comparing him to a young Maurice Jones-Drew. Coleman has just two fumbles in 639 touches during his college career.
“Everything about him, I think, screams longtime NFL contributor,” Rang told me. “If [Coleman] played for Ohio State we’d be talking about him in the second round easily.”
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is the clear No. 1 running back in this year’s draft, while Coleman is ranked No. 87 in Rang’s top 100.
Rang also likes Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas as a polished product who can produce in the NFL the minute he takes the field. Jacas led the Big 10 in sacks last season with 11, and projects as a top 100 draft prospect in a deep pool of defensive end prospects who can get after the passer.
At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, Jacas ran a 4.69-second, 40-yard time at his pro day and bench pressed 225 pounds 30 times. Rang said elements of his game remind him of Seattle Seahawks pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence.
“To me, he feels like one of the safer players in this year’s draft,” Rang told me. “He’s not a guy who’s going to be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate or a future All-Pro guy, but I think he’ll be a steady starter once he walks into the NFL. And I think he’s going to be that for a long time.”
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And which prospects does our draft expert think are a bit overhyped?
Williams: As far as the overrated prospects, Rang first pointed to Allar, as we previously mentioned. Allar is Rang’s seventh-ranked quarterback in this year’s draft class and ranks 120th among his top 150 prospects.
Rang also believes potential first-round offensive tackle prospect Caleb Lomu out of Utah lacks the physicality to consistently produce as a starting left tackle in the league and will need time to grow and develop in an NFL system.
“I personally think he would have been greatly improved had he come back for a year and really went into the weight room,” Rang said. “I think that’s what an NFL team is going to have to do. And if he starts as a rookie, I think he could struggle. He just has to get stronger.”