Not that anyone is counting, but the NFL season is about five months away. If you know me, then you know that’s not going to stop me from finding some bets I want to make right now.
I’m turning my eye to win totals for next year.
And based on two quarterbacks’ recent moves, I’m feeling fairly confident about where I want to put my money in this market.
Here’s what I’m on.
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Minnesota Vikings Over/Under 8.5 wins
Don’t cheat. Guess how many wins the Vikings had in 2025.
They had nine.
That was a 9-8 season for a Vikings team that actually did not feel like it won nine games considering all its quarterback woes. Those issues have been solved with the addition of former Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
Is Murray an excellent quarterback? Sometimes. He’s got the talent to be above average, but I know he’s better than what’s in the QB room for the Vikings currently.
The Vikings have an outstanding coaching staff starting with head coach and primary play-caller, Kevin O’Connell. He’s now got Murray with a good offensive line and Justin Jefferson at receiver.
The Vikings’ offense should be in the upper half of the NFL and possibly a top-10 group.
Last season, the Vikings’ defense finished third in DVOA. The year before that, it finished second. There’s no reason to believe 2026 will be any different.
Minnesota plays in a tough division, featuring the Lions, Packers and Bears. Those are six games that will be 50-50 based on whether the Vikes are home or away. Otherwise, their schedule is manageable.
Minnesota plays the AFC East, with two easy games against the Jets and Dolphins. It gets the NFC South, then the Colts, Commanders and 49ers. I like the Vikings to go Over their win total.
PICK: Vikings Over 8.5 wins
New York Jets Over/Under 5.5
I’m out on the Jets for 2026 after they signed Geno Smith to play quarterback.
Someone out there is yelling, “What else were they supposed to do?” And that’s fair.
But I don’t have a great answer for you.
I’m just not a believer in Smith. He left Seattle and then the Seahawks won a Super Bowl. He went to Vegas and now the Raiders have the first pick in the draft. It’s not Smith’s fault for those two outcomes, but it’s worth noting how Seattle was better without him.
The Jets’ offensive roster around Smith is not bad. New York has a decent offensive line with Breece Hall at running back and Garrett Wilson at receiver. Frank Reich is calling plays for the Jets and his offense has not been good in a while. The 2023 Panthers were 31st in DVOA; the 2022 Colts ranked 32nd.
Don’t believe in that offense.
Head coach Aaron Glenn is supposed to be a defensive guru, but his defense was awful last season. It ranked 31st in DVOA and didn’t record an interception. I have this fundamental belief that if you’re a head coach that masters in either offense or defense, that side of the ball on your team must be good — or at least show improvement in your first season on the job.
Think Ben Johnson with the Bears. That offense was good by the end of the season.
So I don’t believe the New York defense is going to figure it out this season. Not sure what evidence points to that other than wishful thinking.
There are draft rumors that the Jets might use their second, first-round pick on Ty Simpson from Alabama to be their quarterback of the future. Oof. There’s such strong data that shows the success rate for single-year starting college QBs is poor in the NFL. Hard to find a single success story.
Adding Simpson to the roster will not produce wins this season.
Also, the Jets have a difficult schedule.
It’s hard to see anything better than them going 2-4 in the division. They have the AFC West and NFC North, which is unlikely to produce any wins for them. Maybe they’ll go 1-7 there, at best. Then it’s Cardinals, Browns and Titans, which all feel like 50-50 games.
I’ve already taken the Jets Under for their win total.
PICK: Jets Under 5.5 wins