Manchester United‘s new £73.7million signing Benjamin Sesko is unlikely to be their top goalscorer in the Premier League next season.
That’s according to a Premier League supercomputer, which has revealed the stars who are most likely to win the Golden Boot – just days out from the start of the new campaign.
Last year, Mohamed Salah romped home to the award, finishing the season with 29 goals, six ahead of Alexander Isak with 23 and seven ahead of two-time winner Erling Haaland with 22.
Sesko officially joined the Red Devils on a five-year contract this weekend after rebuffing interest from Newcastle United, who reportedly offered him more money for his services than United.
Sesko will likely slot in as a central striker in Ruben Amorim‘s 3-4-2-1 formation, with Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha dropping into the No 10 positions and Fernandes occupying a deeper role in the midfield.
The supercomputer, which was conducted by CasinoHawks, rates the Slovenia international as the 18th-likeliest player to finish the season as the Premier League’s top goalscorer next term, with just a 0.01 per cent chance.
Manchester United’s new signing Benjamin Sesko has been given just a 0.01 per cent chance of winning the Premier League Golden Boot next season
The Slovenia international joined the Red Devils from RB Leipzig for £74million this weekend
Sesko (left) was unveiled at Old Trafford on Saturday, alongside Bryan Mbeumo (second left), Diego Leon (second right), and Matheus Cunha (right)
Having scored 13 goals in 33 league games for RB Leipzig during the 2024-25 season, the prediction model pegs Sesko’s xG projection at 8.9 for the forthcoming campaign at Old Trafford.
But while Sesko’s projections look modest in comparison to the favourites for the Golden Boot, his arrival has pushed the chances of fellow new signings Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha further down the pecking order.
The model clearly expects the 22-year-old to be Manchester United’s first-choice striker for the campaign, though captain and team-mate Bruno Fernandes is a more probable pick.
Fernandes scored eight league goals last season, but has an xG projection of 10.2 and a 0.04 per cent chance of scooping the prize.
To calculate the chances, a simulation-based approach was used once all players expected goal projections were modelled. Each player’s projected xG was modelled using data from previous seasons.
From then, 100,000 simulations – where each player’s total goals were generated using a Poisson distribution based on their xG – was used.
Elsewhere, Haaland is now even more likely to win the Golden Boot according to the prediction model.
Haaland is given a 68.3 per cent chance of taking his title back from Salah, who is now almost seven times less likely to win it.
Bruno Fernandes has been given a 0.04 per cent chance of scooping the Golden Boot award
Erling Haaland has been given a staggering 68.3 per cent chance to win the Golden Boot
Mohamed Salah’s chances of defending his prize in 2025-26 are estimated to be 10.7 per cent
| Player | Golden Boot chance (per cent) |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 68.3 |
| Mohamed Salah | 10.7 |
| Alexander Isak | 8.0 |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 4.1 |
| Chris Wood | 3.8 |
| Cole Palmer | 1.5 |
That could, in part, be down to the Africa Cup of Nations, which takes place this season.
Salah will almost certainly travel to the tournament with Egypt, with the tournament running from December 21 2025 to January 18 2026.
If Egypt go far, Salah could miss at least six league matches for Liverpool – just short of 16 per cent of the season.
Alexander Isak is, meanwhile, third favourite, given an 8.0 per cent chance, ahead of Viktor Gyokeres (4.1 per cent), Chris Wood (3.8 per cent), and Cole Palmer (1.9 per cent).
