It’s make or break for Lando Norris this year, for his reputation and his future. This is because compelling indications from pre-season testing in Bahrain suggest his McLaren team own the fastest car.
The bookies make the 25-year-old Briton favourite to win the world championship, at 7-4 depending on where you punt, with defending champion Max Verstappen 3-1 second favourite.
Next come Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, barely divisible at about 5-1.
And, a subject we shall come back to, Norris’s team-mate Oscar Piastri is an intriguing 8-1.
Of course, if a wager on Norris is to prove a good investment, McLaren must maintain their advantage, which is built on spending most of last season as the quickest performers and becoming world constructors’ champions for the first time this century.
There are also the usual unknowns in the arms race that is Formula One, the possibility of a rival divining a technical breakthrough, though with the regulations having matured – in their final year before a major overhaul for 2026 – the opportunities for eureka moments are limited.
Lando Norris is favourite to be crowned F1 world champion ahead of Max Verstappen
McLaren appear to have the fastest challenger again and must maintain their advantage
Norris could become the 11th Brit to win a world title but Verstappen will push him
Which is a long way of saying that, bar the unexpected, Norris will have the tools he needs to become the 11th man from this country to win a world title, as an heir to Mike Hawthorn, who was the first in 1958. Hamilton was the last in 2020.
The truth is that it is the second time Norris might have accomplished this feat. Last year, after an upgrade in Miami in May, the McLaren was the grid’s supreme machine. He should have won the title, no question, but Verstappen’s resilience and race craft were unbeatable. Mentally, and on track, he held Lando in a vice-like grip.
It was a shame for Norris because he drove beautifully so often. He was quicksilver over one lap. But when it came down to an arm wrestle, his wrist was wont to hit the table. A myriad of pole positions were squandered, most notably in Austin going up the hill into the first corner, when the title fight was alive and fierce.
He is lucky to get another chance to contest the sport’s biggest prize.
Indeed, sad to report for home audiences, flunking it last year was the most conspicuous example of a driver in a superior car losing out on the title since Ferrari’s Felipe Massa – who slithered like a bar of soap in the wet – was beaten by Hamilton, in a McLaren, in 2008. As with Verstappen last year, Hamilton was the best in the game then. A realisation of that hard reality gnaws itself into the psyches of racers even as good as Massa and Norris.
There are mitigations for last year’s miscue. Despite it being his sixth season in Formula One, this was Norris’s first crack at a title. Team personnel, too, were rusty or new to the unique demands of fighting right at the front, and anyway their main focus was on the constructors’ championship rather than the drivers’ crown.
If Norris is to deliver on his status as favourite and fulfil the ultimate intention of his £20million-a-year salary, he has to do at least two things.
First, he must overcome the mental hold Verstappen appears to have over him, and the Dutchman’s Red Bull seems better than last year’s with relatively positive vibes coming from the world champion’s camp.
Norris must overcome the mental hold Verstappen has over him after last year’s miscue
His McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri, right, is a dark horse after an extra year of experience
But Norris has vowed not to be cowed and plans to get his elbows out when dueling with rivals
Norris has vowed not to be cowed. Speaking at Silverstone recently, he said: ‘I need to get my elbows out. I need to show I’m not going to willingly give him any positions.
‘I also have to be a smart driver. You have to be smart to go up against Max. But I look forward to it. I like having to make quick decisions. It’s always a lot harder when you’re in the car than when you re-watch it. But even when I see back some things that I did, I’m like, what the hell have I done? What an idiot.
‘But at the same time, I don’t want to say I need to prove something to him.
‘I don’t need to take any unnecessary risks. He’s quick, he’s aggressive, he’s one of the best ever, so the easy way is being quicker and staying ahead. It means I want to start the season well.’
The other curveball lies on the other side of the garage: Piastri. The 23-year-old Australian with two campaigns under his belt is described as a silent assassin.
As a demon behind his level and reasonable persona. Many observers in the sport think his steel will lead him to prevail after an extra year of experience and given that McLaren, the fairest of teams under chief executive Zak Brown and team principal Andrea Stella, have guaranteed their pair of drivers equal status, no No 1 and No 2 differentiation.
It may be that Piastri will succeed – not a bad price for him at the bookies – but last year he won two races to Norris’s four, was beaten 20-4 in qualifying and finished 82 points behind his team-mate.
Mail Sport spoke to Damon Hill, the 1996 world champion, as he was boarding a flight to Adelaide for a celebration of his victory in the last race staged there 30 years ago. He is a big Norris supporter.
His reaction to pressure and racing against close friends is now the central question before him
‘I still think he can beat Oscar,’ said Hill, who will commentate for Australia’s Channel 10 at next Sunday’s opening race in Melbourne, having parted from Sky (their hardship).
‘Oscar is brilliant, but Lando has pulled out a bit extra when needed. Oscar is talented but Lando is a force.
‘I think he fell into the trap last year of thinking when going up against Max that he was racing against his mate. Actually, despite their friendship, he was taking on his worst enemy. And in Max’s mind when he is driving there is just Max.
‘Lando blames himself when he makes mistakes. He is very hard on himself. He is not happy if he doesn’t think he has got 100 per cent out of his potential. It is a hallmark of a great driver. I also like his personality. It is very appealing.
‘Because I live in Guildford, McLaren are my local team (in Woking, Surrey). I would like to see them do well, but not to be dominant. I would prefer it to be a hard fight, good for the fans.
‘Formula One is so much more complex than when I was driving. It was relatively simple then. You would get radio messages occasionally. But often nobody had any idea of what to say to help.
‘Now the information comes quick and fast. Lando is one of those drivers who can take in the information without missing a beat.’
If Norris can get one over Verstappen, it will elevate him into a celebrated national figure
Hill had to go soon after imparting those observations, placing his bags in the overhead locker for the long journey Down Under.
Like Norris, he had to contend with a force of nature, in his case Michael Schumacher, who collided with him in Adelaide in 1994. But he rose to the top two years later, the triumph his and Murray Walker with a lump in his throat.
And if Norris, a wonderful talent, can get one over Verstappen, the Schumacher of his time in some respects, just once, it won’t only be cathartic after last season but will elevate him into a celebrated national figure.
So, no pressure then. And Norris’s reaction to pressure – in the form of his buddies Max, and possibly Oscar – is the central question before him.