NEW YORK — In finishing off a sweep of the Washington Nationals with a 7-0 win at Citi Field Thursday, the New York Mets also reached a landmark in their remarkable mid-season turnaround. Just weeks after sitting 13th in the National League, New York is in playoff position, percentage points ahead of the San Diego Padres for the third and final wild-card berth.
The Mets could, therefore, be straightforward buyers at the July 30 trade deadline, looking to fortify a roster for October. New York’s rise, however, reveals just how swiftly the landscape of a tightly packed wild-card race can change, and there are scenarios in which the Mets could be the biggest deadline sellers in the sport. And, of course, they can do a little bit of both, as president of baseball operations David Stearns has done in the past.
With fewer than three weeks to go before the deadline, let’s examine the pros and cons of those different approaches. To be clear, Stearns and the Mets shouldn’t be making a firm decision on a deadline approach here and now, on July 11. But they should be thinking through how each of these pathways could play out, complete with their benefits and downsides.
The Case for Buying
Stearns said it the day he was introduced as president of baseball operations: “I don’t know that I would ever say that a year here should be a reset year … We should be in the playoff race and be a true playoff contender. That should be our goal.”
Well here we are, days shy of the All-Star break, and the Mets are playoff contenders. The path there has been more circuitous than they would have liked, and they’ve been abetted by an underwhelming National League. But even before Thursday’s win, the Mets’ playoff chances hovered around 40 percent according to FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. That’s better than where they were on Opening Day.
And it isn’t just that the Mets have gotten themselves back into contention over the last six weeks; it’s how. The concern for the Mets earlier this season was that they didn’t do anything especially well: They ranked in the middle of the majors in most every relevant statistic. That kind of team, one that is mediocre across the board, is really hard to improve in-season because you need to be a little bit better in a lot of different places.
J.D. adds on 😤 pic.twitter.com/TTtSAKhrrb
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 11, 2024
Over the past six weeks, though, New York has morphed into a team with a very clear strength offensively and a large weakness in its bullpen. The Mets have spent six weeks averaging six runs per game, which is trending away from aberration. Their offense looks better than what their chief competitors for a wild card can boast, and it gives them a leg up moving forward.
Another current weakness, the lack of a front-line starter, could be remedied internally with the return of Kodai Senga. And so the avenues to improving are clearer: Pick up another reliever or four, hang on to your starting depth as you transition to a six-man rotation with Senga back, and try to upgrade a bench spot and protect yourself from possible injuries.
Would that team be a favorite in October? Nope. Would it have a good chance of getting there and maybe winning a series for the first time in nine years? Yes.
The Case for Selling
Since the offseason, we’ve talked about the ways the expanded postseason rewards teams just for getting into the tournament. After all, the last two pennant-winners in the National League have been No. 6 seeds.
But neither the Philadelphia Phillies nor Arizona Diamondbacks won the World Series, which is the actual goal. And as good as the Mets offense has looked of late, the limitations of this pitching staff — which can’t be bolstered enough with what’s likely to be available at this deadline — leave it shy of being a legitimate championship contender in 2024. The Mets still walk too many hitters, don’t miss enough bats, and would be at a pitching disadvantage in most if not every game against the National League’s best teams in October. A very good offense can only carry you so far.
There would be a clear benefit to this kind of candid self-assessment: This is going to be a seller’s market at the deadline, and the Mets can run it. Luis Severino would be one of the best starters available and J.D. Martinez one of the best bats. They could land useful pieces back for Harrison Bader and Jose Quintana. (The injuries to Brooks Raley and Drew Smith, as well as the struggles of Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman, limit the return the Mets could get from a reliever sell-off. But there is time for Ottavino, Diekman and even the newly acquired Phil Maton to change that.)
Reliever Adam Ottavino is having a down year with a 5.03 ERA in 35 games. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
And then, of course, there’s the other step the Mets could take by trading Pete Alonso. While this has not been a trademark season for Alonso, he would still have a very good chance of being the best bat available at the deadline. Alonso possesses in abundance the skill most prized by October baseball: power. Alonso isn’t going to fetch you three future pieces of your core in return, but dealing him would make the future Mets better.
The ancillary benefit to making these moves in July is providing more opportunity for youngsters in the major leagues. Dealing Martinez and/or Alonso opens up a spot for Brett Baty to return. Trading away pieces from the starting rotation creates more sustained opportunities for Christian Scott and Jose Buttó.
Selling, especially if it includes Alonso, would be painful in the short term. It would be beneficial for the long term.
The Case for Threading the Needle
The Mets occupy a middle ground in a muddled National League, and their approach, dictated by that uncertainty, should be middle-of-the-road.
New York can buy pieces for its bullpen without sacrificing much in future value. See Tuesday’s trade, in which the Mets landed an experienced and accomplished reliever like Maton for cash. At the same time they’re buttressing the bullpen, they can capitalize on their surplus of starters. The Mets have nine viable big-league starters on their 40-man roster, more than enough for the six-man rotation they plan to run once Senga is back. And so, in that seller’s market, they could move Quintana and/or Severino to improve the team’s future.
Threading the needle is unlikely to win the Mets an extra playoff round. Teams that have historically taken this approach at the deadline tend not to go very far in October. But it could bolster their chances of reaching October — which for many in the fan base would stamp 2024 as a successful season — while also adding pieces for the future.
(Top photo of Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor celebrating Thursday’s win: Adam Hunger / Associated Press)