It has been exactly one week since the Golden State Warriors took home their fourth NBA championship in seven seasons against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden, but we’re right back into the action with the 2022 NBA Draft in Brooklyn, New York on Thursday evening.
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NBA Odds Explained
The NBA Draft uses future and proposition betting, which simply means these markets are available outside of actual games. In these type of markets, the best way to make a profit is by acting quickly when odds are first introduced, or being quick off the mark whenever there appears to be selections shortening or drifting. By analysing the movement between odds on different outcomes, bettors can get a good understanding of where these odds are likely to shift to next.
However, it isn’t always as black and white as this. Sudden changes can occur overnight, like we saw recently with Duke prospect Paolo Banchero shooting up to the odds-on favourite to be selected with the first overall pick in tonight’s draft before Jabari Smith regained the projected top spot. As always, there are certain risks involved, but plenty of money to be made.
There are three different types of odds used by the bookmakers to determine which price a selection enters the market at. In Britain, fractional odds are used (10/1 e.g.), compared to decimal odds which are more popular across Europe (2.5 e.g.), or money line odds which is the main format across America (+150 e.g.).
Despite different formats being used, it doesn’t make a difference on the actual odds themselves and is just another way of presenting the same figure with the same payout and margins – like a personal preference.
American money line odds, which are mainly used across the NBA, uses positive and negative signs to indicate the amount a bettor would need to stake on a selection to win $100 or the amount you can win on every $100 staked.
For example, the current money line for Jabari Smith Jr. to be selected as the first overall pick in tonight’s draft is -190. This means there is an implied probability of 88.9% that this will happen, with the odds converting to a fractional 1/8 in Britain and 1.13 decimal odds in Europe.
To win $100 on this selection, the bettor would need to stake $800 for an overall payout of $900.
Odds to be the First Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft
Odds from BetOnline (Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change):
Jabari Smith Jr. – -800
Paolo Banchero – +200
Chet Holmgren – +1000
Odds to be the Second Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft
Chet Holmgren – -140
Jabari Smith Jr. – +110
Paolo Banchero – +700
Jaden Ivey – +2500
Odds to be the Third Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft
Paolo Banchero – +150
Jabari Smith Jr. – +155
Chet Holmgren – +200
Jaden Ivey – +1600
Keegan Murray – +2200
Shaedon Sharpe – +3500
Draft Position Betting
Another prop market available to bettors is draft position. This can come in the form of betting on what position a certain player will be selected at, in the form of betting on which out of a selected two players will be drafted first, or if a player will even be drafted at all.
A.J. Griffin Draft Position:
Over 11.5 Position – -140
Under 11.5 Position – +100
Will Collin Gillespie be Drafted?
Yes – +215
No – -325
Another market with plenty of value for bettors is how many players from a certain college will be drafted in the first round, or how many freshmen will be drafted in the first round for example. There are 30 picks in the first round, and 30 picks in the second round – accumulating to 60 overall picks in the draft.
There are a total of five players from North Carolina university Duke who have declared for the 2022 NBA Draft. These are as follows; Forward Paolo Banchero, Forward A.J. Griffin, Center Mark Williams, Forward Wendell Moore Jr., and Guard Trevor Keels.
Duke Players Selected in 1st Round
Over 3.5 Duke Players – -275
Under 3.5 Duke Players – +185
Total Freshman Selected in 1st Round
Under 13 – -130
Over 13 – -110
There is lots to be excited about ahead of Thursday’s draft which will take place at the home of the Brooklyn Nets in the Barclays Center, New York, with these young talents taking the biggest leap of their short careers so far.
All that’s left to do is wait patiently, place your bets, and get ready for NBA commissioner Adam Silver to introduce the brand new talent that will enter the league this fall.