How many NHL players from elite 2003 draft class will make the Hockey Hall of Fame?

The NHL’s draft class of 2003 is considered arguably the greatest and deepest of all time. Seventeen players chosen in 2003 have played 1,000 games or more, and another eight played above 800. Six crossed the 1,300-game threshold and two – Ryan Suter and Brent Burns – have not only played more than 1,400 but are also signed to play again next year, Suter for the St. Louis Blues, Burns for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Twenty-one years after their collective draft years, however, the majority of players have either retired or are closing in on retirement.

So how many of these players are actually destined for the Hall? The answer is surprisingly few.

One is already in – Shea Weber, selected as part of the HHOF class of 2024, with his induction coming up in November.

A second, Patrice Bergeron, retired at the end of the 2022-23 season, so he becomes eligible in 2026. He should be a unanimous first-ballot choice, given the six Selke Trophy wins, the 12 nominations, the two Olympic golds, the 2011 Stanley Cup and the 2016 World Cup. He is the only player ever to win a senior world championship before he won a junior world championship.

In short, Bergeron is generally viewed as one of the best all-around players in NHL history. He and Weber share one other trait beyond their HHOF-level resumes – neither was chosen in the first round of that 2003 draft. Bergeron went 45th, Weber 49th.

The first player chosen in 2003, Marc-Andre Fleury, will also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He is second overall in goalie wins, with 561, trailing only Martin Brodeur. The No. 4 (Roberto Luongo) and No. 6 (Henrik Lundqvist) goalies on that list were both elected in their first years of eligibility. No reason to think it will be any different for Fleury.

But it gets complicated after that.

Eric Staal was drafted No. 2 to Carolina and had a distinguished career – 1,063 points in 1,365 games, 76th all-time on the NHL’s all-time scoring list. The only player chosen in 2003 who’s ahead of him is Joe Pavelski, the 205th pick that year, who had 1,068 points in 1,332 games.

Pavelski is 71st on the all-time scoring list. He didn’t win a major NHL award, made the end-of-season All-Star team once (second team, 2014) and his primary claim to fame is most playoff goals by an American-born player (74).

Staal, meanwhile, is a member of the exclusive Triple Gold club, having won the Stanley Cup in 2006, a world championship in 2007 and an Olympic gold medal in 2010. He finished fourth in Hart balloting in 2006 and made the second All-Star team that same year. Both will be candidates for the Hall, but neither is a lock.

Why? Because even though career scoring totals are not the sole criteria for selection, there is a group of players clustered between 50 and 54 on the all-time NHL points list (Bernie Nicholls, Vincent Damphousse, Patrick Marleau and Rod Brind’Amour) who’ve scored between 1,209 (Nicholls) and 1,184 (Brind’Amour) points who still haven’t made it to the Hall.

Among forwards from the 2023 draft class, Ryan Getzlaf (1,019 career points), Corey Perry (905 and still counting), Zach Parise (889) and Jeff Carter (851) probably haven’t done enough to make it, though Perry – by virtue of a Hart trophy win, a Stanley Cup championship, and a record of getting to Finals with a succession of teams, including Edmonton last year, will merit some consideration. Other forwards – Dustin Brown, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Kesler – are, at best, members of the Hall of the Very Good.

It’s different on defense, where Brent Burns (20th pick to Minnesota) is likely to be the fourth player from 2003 to make it. Burns is 14th all-time in scoring among defensemen, ahead of – among others – Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Drew Doughty and Alex Pietrangelo, all of whom will likely become Hall of Famers.

Suter is less of a certainty but also on track. He’s 33rd in scoring by a defenseman and was the 1A/1B defenseman in Nashville in Weber’s primary years with the Predators as well.

The contributions of defensemen are sometimes difficult to quantify because they are rarely in the conversation for the Hart trophy as MVP. The primary hardware they compete for is the Norris Trophy, which technically, goes to the “defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position” but nowadays, mostly goes to a player who racks up the points.

Suter, in his prime, demonstrated great all-around ability, but he made the first all-star team just once in his career (2013).

Other blueliners from the draft — notably Dion Phaneuf and Brent Seabrook — had fine careers, but are not at the HHOF level.

(Photo of Marc-Andre Fleury: David Berding / Getty Images)